The political landscape is heating up and whether you techno-anarchists like it or not, Bitcoin and crypto are a part of the conversation! In this article we will dive into some potential implications for Bitcoin and broader crypto market as a whole and what this could mean for the future of the industry.
Bitcoin & Trump
Former President Donald Trump has had a changing stance on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, over the years. In recent months, he has expressed more positive views towards digital currencies. Here are some key points from the last 6 months:
- Bitcoin 2024 Conference: At the conference in Nashville, Trump made a surprise appearance and spoke about his support for cryptocurrency. He criticized SEC Chair Gary Gensler, saying that if elected again, he would “fire him,” citing frustration with the regulator’s stance on crypto. This particular claim resulted in an erupting of applause from the audience. He also promised to establish a crypto advisory council to guide policy decisions and declared that the United States should become the “crypto capital of the world.”
- Support for Financial Innovation: Trump has called for taking a stand against Wall Street and supporting financial innovation, including cryptocurrencies. This shift in stance could be attributed to his belief that digital currencies can help level the playing field between traditional finance and emerging technologies.
- Taxation and Regulation: Although he didn’t explicitly mention it during his appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump has previously expressed support for a flat tax rate, which could potentially include cryptocurrencies. He has also suggested deregulating certain aspects of cryptocurrency markets to promote innovation and growth.
- Influence on Political Donations: The former president’s shift towards supporting cryptocurrencies may have an impact on political donations from the crypto community. As he explores opportunities in the space, it’s possible that Trump could receive more contributions from crypto enthusiasts, which could influence his policy decisions in the future.
- Consistency vs. Change: It’s essential to note that Trump’s views on cryptocurrencies haven’t been consistent throughout his political career. Prior to 2024, he had publicly criticized Bitcoin and other digital currencies, even suggesting that they were a “fad” or used for illicit activities. However, recent events suggest that he has changed his stance, potentially due to the growing influence of cryptocurrencies in finance and politics.
In summary, Trump’s views on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency have evolved over time, with more recent statements indicating support for digital currencies and financial innovation. His promises at the Bitcoin 2024 conference and calls for deregulation could signal a shift towards embracing cryptocurrencies within his political agenda.
With these bold campaign promises in mind, we believe that if Trump manages to win the election or have a strong showing vs Harris, markets will be bullish on Bitcoin and likely Crypto as well.
Harris and Bitcoin
Kamala Harris, the current Vice President of the United States, has not publicly stated her views on Bitcoin in great detail. However, based on available information and context, it can be inferred that she may have mixed feelings about cryptocurrencies. Here’s a summary:
- Limited Public Statements: Unlike former President Trump, Kamala Harris hasn’t made any significant public statements specifically about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Her views on the subject remain relatively unknown.
- Crypto Regulation: As a senator and attorney general, Harris has expressed concerns about regulation in various industries. It’s possible that she may advocate for a regulatory framework that balances innovation with consumer protection and anti-money laundering measures.
- Democratic Party Stance: The Democratic Party has generally been more skeptical of cryptocurrencies than the Republican Party. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that Harris personally opposes Bitcoin, it suggests that her views might align with those of her party. (I personally believe that the ethos of the democratic part is not necessarily opposed to Bitcoin and some aspects could appeal to the Progressive movement. Read more about that here)
- Potential Influences: As a prominent figure in the Biden administration, Harris may be influenced by the president’s stance on cryptocurrency matters. Joe Biden has been relatively quiet about cryptocurrencies, but his administration has taken steps to promote innovation and regulatory clarity.
- Absence from Crypto Events: Kamala Harris hasn’t attended any major crypto conferences or events like Bitcoin 2024, which might suggest that she doesn’t have a strong interest in the subject.
In summary, while Kamala Harris’s views on Bitcoin are not well-defined due to limited public statements, her background as a senator and attorney general may lead her to support regulatory measures. The Democratic Party’s more cautious stance towards cryptocurrencies could also influence her opinions. However, without more information, it’s difficult to determine her precise thoughts on the matter.
Most Likely Debate Outcome 1 – Debate is seen as a Tie. Bitcoin not mentioned.
In what we believe to be the most likely scenario, Bitcoin is not mentioned and life continues.
Political pundits on both sides of the isle believe their candidate is the victor and made more clear points that the other. If you are watching CNN, Harris wins, if you are watching Fo News, Trump brings home the V.
Bitcoin isn’t mentioned in this scenario. Since it is a tight race, no prediction on the price of Bitcoin moving forward except for long Vol.
Outcome 2 – Trump wins the debate and Bitcoin pumps. Bitcoin not mentioned.
Thinking over the debate styles and experience of Donald Trump, we believe this is the second most likely scenario. As betting markets like Polymarket, adjust a few percentage points from the debate performance, forward looking investors will place more money on Bitcoin and Crypto.
Outcome 3 – Harris wins the debate Bitcoin volatile. Bitcoin not mentioned.
In this scenario Harris looks more reasonable, cool, calm and collected than the seasoned business man and former president. Bitcoin isn’t mentioned.
We believe in this scenario Bitcoin gets volatile. While October has in previous years been bullish for Bitcoin (Uptober), this October could be in for a surprise. Long term Harris will need to adapt a more pro-Bitocin stance to stay relevant, but for the time being this will not be a good outcome for Bitcoin.
Outcome 4 – Debate a tie, Bitcoin is mentioned. Bullish on Bitcoin
With Bitcoin all news is good news and an advertisement for the most powerful cryptocurrency in the world. If the MC asks a Bitcoin related question or one of the candidates brings it up in an answer, it will be a massive win for Bitcoin regardless what either candidate says.
Both candidates are smart enough to know that a massive Cyrpto-Army will be listening carefully with their vote in mind. Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC will likely start sending out resumes.
Outcome 5 – Harris comes out as pro-Bitcoin and crypto – most bullish result. Leastly likely Outcome
We’ve saved the best for last. VP, Harris comes out as a pro-Bitcoin and crypto candidate. While we believe this outcome is extraordinarily unlikely, this would have the most bullish reaction for the following reasons.
- Market would price in Bitcoin as bullish regardless of election outcome
- Democratic party would be forced to define stance on Bitcoin and other digital assets
- Tech companies with mixed political signals would be united under a likely tech-forward leadership.
Settle in and buckle up it promises to be a good debate. Cheers!
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The Roadmap for President Trump’s Crypto-Crackdown
corpgov.law.harvard.edu1
Donald Trump Backs ‘Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile’ in Speech to Crypto Faithful | WIRED
www.wired.com2
Trump’s bitcoin strategy was shared behind closed doors with CEOs who raised $25 million. Here’s what he told them.
www.cnbc.com3
Trump shifts stance on cryptocurrency to win over new bloc of voters and mega-donors | PBS News
www.pbs.org4
Trump’s Crypto Embrace Could Be a Disaster for Bitcoin | WIRED
www.wired.com5
Donald Trump Backs ‘Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile’ in Speech to Crypto Faithful | WIRED
www.wired.com6
Opinion | Trump, Republicans are shifting on cryptocurrency. Beware. – The Washington Post
www.washingtonpost.com7
Donald Trump and Bitcoin: Impact on Cryptocurrency’s Future
www.cryptodispensers.com8
‘Exciting Updates’—New Details Of Donald Trump’s Mystery Crypto Project Spark Wild Bitcoin Rival Speculation
www.forbes.com9
Trump courts Bitcoin and crypto fans for votes and donations
www.bbc.com
Source: Democratic Party Platform 2020